A market review published on 27 October 2026 by Andrew Woods for Mecardo examines long-run relationships between wool and other apparel fibres and concludes that wool prices have largely moved with the wider staple-fibre complex.
Wool embedded in the wider apparel fibre complex
Woods sets wool within the context of an apparel-fibre market that includes cotton and a range of man-made staple fibres. He notes the historical shift in fibre shares — wool was dominant in 14th century England, cotton grew from the 18th century and oil-based synthetic fibres expanded from the early 20th century — and argues those structural changes remain relevant for modern price behaviour.
Using price series from 1980 onwards, the analysis compares a 30-micron wool price series with a weighted average of non-wool staple fibres (NWSF), adjusted for inflation in US dollars. Woods reports a clear downward trend in the relationship between the two series and finds that the 30-micron price has generally followed the NWSF trend, with only occasional periods of divergence, notably in the late 1980s and during 2012–2020.
Merino shows partial decoupling as fibre diameter falls
The review repeats the comparison for merino wool. For the period 1980 to 2000 the merino price series moved closely with the NWSF series, except for a brief 1980s divergence. From the early 2000s, as the supply of merino fell and the average fibre diameter became finer, the merino series began to loosen its correlation with the NWSF, according to the Mecardo analysis.
- Timeframe analysed: 1980 onwards
- Comparisons made: 30-micron wool and merino versus a weighted NWSF series
- Noted divergence periods: late 1980s; 2012–2020
Woods highlights the implication that wool prices cannot permanently stray from the broader apparel-fibre market and that long-run forces in the non-wool complex exert downward pressure. He also emphasises that all types of wool have a market, while posing the question of price levels at which those markets are viable.
| series | period studied | relationship to NWSF |
|---|---|---|
| 30-micron | 1980 onwards | Generally follows NWSF trend; brief divergences late 1980s, 2012–2020 |
| merino | 1980–2000; early 2000s onward | Tightly correlated 1980–2000; looser correlation after early 2000s as fibre became finer |
The analysis, published by Mecardo on 27 October 2026, frames wool pricing as inherently connected to the broader apparel-fibre market and stresses that historical shifts in fibre composition and recent changes in merino supply and diameter are relevant to understanding price movements.
