Australia’s trade agreement with the European Union is facing renewed scrutiny after the Nationals questioned whether projected agricultural gains were based on market access that was not included in the final deal.
The dispute matters to the international sheepmeat market because the agreement provides Australia with new annual access for 25,000 tonnes of sheepmeat and goatmeat, phased in over seven years. The final arrangement also includes an additional beef quota of 30,600 tonnes, to be introduced over 10 years.
Questions over the modelling
The Nationals said government forecasts had relied on an earlier European scenario in which agricultural tariffs were removed. That outcome was not secured, with Australian beef, sheepmeat and other farm exports remaining subject to quota arrangements under the agreement.
According to the Nationals, the European Commission’s 2020 modelling projected a 528% rise in beef and sheepmeat exports, alongside increases of 86% for dairy, 113% for rice and 123% for sugar. The party argued that those figures represented an ambitious tariff-free scenario rather than the agricultural access delivered by the agreement finalised in March.
| Product | Access in the final agreement | Implementation period |
|---|---|---|
| Beef | 30,600 tonnes annually | 10 years |
| Sheepmeat and goatmeat | 25,000 tonnes annually | Seven years |
Trade Minister Don Farrell defended the government’s assessment when officials appeared at Senate estimates on Wednesday night. He said the published estimate represented the lower end of the agreement’s possible value to Australia, partly because the pact also created opportunities involving critical minerals.
“We have been relying on those figures, but not just on those figures. They're also the figures that (EU) President von Der Leyen used when she announced the agreement.”
Nationals leader and opposition trade spokesman Matt Canavan rejected that explanation and said the government had promoted wider economic benefits using assumptions that did not match the agricultural provisions ultimately agreed.
“The EUFTA is a dud deal sold on dodgy figures.”
Quotas remain central to the outcome
The argument centres on the difference between increased quota access and unrestricted entry to the European market. While the agreement expands the volume of Australian sheepmeat and goatmeat that can be exported, the agreed quantities are being introduced progressively rather than through the abolition of agricultural tariffs.
The Nationals said the government had claimed the agreement would deliver a $10 billion benefit for Australian exporters, with that figure potentially rising to $30 billion. The party contended that the higher estimates depended on the EU removing all agricultural tariffs, which did not occur.
- Australian sheepmeat and goatmeat access is set at 25,000 tonnes annually.
- The quota is phased in over seven years.
- The agreement also provides 30,600 tonnes of additional annual beef access over 10 years.
- Earlier modelling cited a 528% potential increase in beef and sheepmeat exports.
The competing interpretations leave the value of the agricultural concessions at the centre of the political dispute. The government has maintained that the overall agreement delivers substantial opportunities, while the Nationals have focused on the restrictions that remain on Australian red-meat exports to the EU.
